工业技术经济2016，Vol.35Issue(2)：121-129,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2016.02.017
中国再生资源价格长期波动特征及其对经济的影响研究
The Characteristics on the Price Fluctuation of the Renewable Resource and Its Impact on Economic Research for a Long Time
摘要
Abstract
Although the proportion of renewable resources replacing the native resources in industrial production has gradually been increasing , the price's volatility characteristics of the renewable resource and its impact on the economy are lack of more researches . In this paper , using the GRACH family model exampled by the recycled copper , we found that the recycled copper price has the volatility clustering and the price's volatility is relatively slow . And the negative impacts of recycled copper price are more fluctuating than the posi-tive effect . In addition , the erratic fluctuation of the recycled copper prices has a significant GARCH-M effect , that is expected to have a positive impact on the risk of secondary fluctuating copper price . Then using the VAR model , impulse response function and the other methods , by introducing output , investment , consumption , inflation and other macroeconomic variables , it quantitatively analyzes the re-lationship between fluctuations in the price of renewable resources and the Chinese economy . The test results showed that the prices of the renewable copper as the important construction materials , the prices in the short term would promote the GDP growth , but the long inhibit-ed investment that could eventually affect GDP growth and increase inflation , and have a negative impact on the country's economic devel-opment . The empirical results of this paper reveals the changes in the price of scrap metal is just behind the changes in the appearance of some kind of economic growth , and inflation on the impact of China's economy are more complex reasons:the real problem is fixed invest-ment and stimulate economic changes in the industrial structure of the growth model of development , excessive reliance on real estate and other fundamental impact on China's economy .关键词
再生资源价格/GRACH模型/杠杆效应/经济波动/VAR模型/GDPKey words
renewable resources price/GRACH model/leverage/economic fluctuations/VAR model/GDP分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王国友..中国再生资源价格长期波动特征及其对经济的影响研究[J].工业技术经济,2016,35(2):121-129,9.基金项目
国家社科基金项目"我国铜资源二次利用的生态产业链延伸路径研究"(项目编号:15XGL016). （项目编号:15XGL016）
