气象Issue(12)：1554-1561,8.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.12.014
2014年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定
Verification on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2014
摘要
Abstract
The location,track,landfall point and intensity forecast error of tropical cyclones (TCs)over Western North Pacific in 2014 are evaluated on the basis of CMA/STI’s “Best-track”dataset.The results show that the performance of TC positioning is a little worse than in 2013,with an average error by all methods being 25.3 km.The average track forecast errors of CMA subjective method are 84.3 km (24 h), 145.6 km (48 h)and 205.4 km (72 h),280.2 km (96 h)and 415.3 km (120 h),respectively.A huge re-duction on track forecast was made at large lead time compared to 2013.Meanwhile,global model’s aver-age track forecast errors are 88.1 km (24 h),159.6 km (48 h),253.9 km (72 h),393.6 km (96 h)and 572.1 km (120 h),and the average errors for regional models are 97.4 km (24 h),188.2 km (48 h),and 302.7 km (72 h).The overall performance of statistical forecast method is still better than numerical pre-diction method in intensity forecast,while in the numerical prediction methods,the performance of region-al models is slightly better than that of global models.关键词
热带气旋/定位误差/路径误差/强度误差Key words
tropical cyclone (TC)/positioning error/track error/intensity error分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈国民,曹庆,白莉娜..2014年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定[J].气象,2015,(12):1554-1561,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（41275067、41305049、41475058和41405060）共同资助 （）
