广东海洋大学学报Issue(6)：64-69,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9159.2015.06.012
太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群资源补充量预报模型研究
Study on Forecasting Model of Recruitment for the Autumn-spawning Group ofTodarodes pacificus
摘要
Abstract
The Japanese common squid,Todarodes pacificus (Cephalopoda: Ommastrephidae), is short-lived species, and its recruitment extremely easily affected by settlement to environmental change. According to the Japan ofTodarodes pacificus autumn-spawning group resource evaluation report in 2013, as well as sea surface temperature (tSST), chlorophyll-a concentration (ρChl-a) in the spawning grounds, calculate the Japanese common squid in spawning ground spawning month optimal range temperature accounts for the proportion of the total (Ps) and characterization of spawning ground environment oftSST, chlorophyll a concentration and other environmental factors and unit catches in the amount of fishing effort (CPUE), set up a variety of resources recharge forecast model based on the main environmental factors. The result shows thatTodarodes pacificus recruitment of the correlation coefficient and the amount of the monthlytSST respectively , Point 1 (33.5°N,129.5°E) in October , Point 2 (31°N,127°E) in November, Point 3(33.5°N,125°E) in December, and correlation coefficient of theρChl-a concentration in Point 4 (34°N,129.5°E) in November, Point 5 (35°N,130°E) in December. The BP model with the structure 3-2-1 by usingtSST at Point 1,ρChl-a at Point 4 and Ps is the best, and the average forecasting accuracy rate attain 91.5%. This model can be used in the forecasting the recruitment of Todarodes pacificus.关键词
太平洋褶柔鱼/秋生群体/资源补充量预报/神经网络/多元线性模型Key words
Todarodes pacificus/autumn-spawning group/forecasting model of resources recruitment/neural network/multivariable linear model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
胡飞飞,陈新军..太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群资源补充量预报模型研究[J].广东海洋大学学报,2015,(6):64-69,6.基金项目
国家863计划(2012AA092303)；海洋局公益性行业专项 （2012AA092303）
