南京工业大学学报（社会科学版）2015，Vol.14Issue(4)：92-98,7.
季节性洪灾预测下的应急供应链库存策略
Emergency Supply Chain Inventory Policy Under Seasonal Flooding Forecast
摘要
Abstract
Rational and effective management on the emergency supply chain inventory is of great significance to enterprises in their disaster prevention and mitigation. In natural disaster emergency rescue, it can not only guar-antee timely and expeditious supplies, but reduce reserve cost as well as occupation and waste of social re-sources. To better cope with the seasonal occurrence of floods and other emergencies, we study the flooding oc-currence over the years with Markov chain, trying to predict next season's floods and demand for emergency sup-ply, based on which, a continuous inventory stock model is built with fuzzy theory. The total inventory cost func-tion expression is further drawn to arrive at the optimum order point and optimal order quantity. It can not only provide strategy to deal with seasonal flooding, but also give clues to emergency supplies stored in flood-prone ar-eas so as to reduce the losses caused by floods and other natural disasters.关键词
季节性洪灾/马尔科夫链/模糊理论/库存模型Key words
seasonal flooding/Markov chain/fuzzy theory/inventory model分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
何新华,刘泓邑,肖敏..季节性洪灾预测下的应急供应链库存策略[J].南京工业大学学报（社会科学版）,2015,14(4):92-98,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71102043、71473162) （71102043、71473162）
上海市教育委员会创新项目(14ZS123) （14ZS123）
上海海事大学研究生创新基金项目(2014ycx020、2014ycx014) （2014ycx020、2014ycx014）
上海海事大学科研基金项目(20120054、20130450) （20120054、20130450）
