电力系统自动化Issue(4)：140-151,12.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20150711003
光伏功率预测技术
An Overview of Photovoltaic Energy System Output Forecasting Technology
摘要
Abstract
Forecast of photovoltaic energy system output is a crucial technology to improve the performance of photovoltaic energy stations,and plays a fundamental role in the secure and stable operation of power grid with high penetration of photovoltaic generation.Since photovoltaic energy system forecasting is still at very early stage,it is critical to understand its technical roadmap and key problems.This paper gives a comprehensive review of the basic technical principles and key problems in the photovoltaic energy forecasting.Firstly,the basic principle and methods of photovoltaic energy forecasting are introduced.Then the key technical points of ultra-short term and short term forecasting are summarized,specially focusing on the forecasting accuracy.Finally,the key issues of photovoltaic energy forecasting are summarized from the prospective of Chinese market.关键词
光伏功率预测/云图/数值天气预报/预测算法Key words
photovoltaic forecasting/sky images/numerical weather prediction(NWP)/estimation methods引用本文复制引用
龚莺飞,鲁宗相,乔颖,王强..光伏功率预测技术[J].电力系统自动化,2016,(4):140-151,12.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2013BAA01B03) （2013BAA01B03）
国网河北省电力公司资助项目(SGHB0000DJK1400084)。This work is supported by National Key Technologies R&D Program(No.2013BAA01B03)and State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company(No.SGHB0000DJK1400084) （SGHB0000DJK1400084）
