气象Issue(1)：54-60,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.01.006
气象因子对西安城市用电量的影响研究及中长期系统化预测
Study on the Impact of Weather on Electricity Consumption in Xi’an and Its Application to Mid-Long Term Prediction
摘要
Abstract
Predicting urban electricity consumption is essential to electricity deployment of the electrical sector.An econometric model is established by using real monthly data from 2004 to 2012 to estimate the impact of weather on electricity consumption.Based on the model estimates,an online operation system of electricity consumption prediction has been initiated and tested for real application.The results show that:(1)There exists a robust and U-shaped relationship between temperature and electricity consumption. (2)The total electricity consumption peaks in winter,and the industrial electricity consumption decreases while the residential increases significantly due to the Spring Festival in February.(3)The simulated val-ues fit quite well with the historical records and the predicted error is less than 5% demonstrating the capa-bility of mid-long term prediction.(4)The operation system,incorporated with weather forecasting data, help calculate continuous possible electricity demand of the next 12 months,which provides useful implications for electricity allocation and management.关键词
用电量/气象因子/气象业务系统/中长期预测Key words
electricity consumption/weather factor/meteorological operation system/mid-long term pre-diction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
罗慧,徐军昶,肖波,刘波,巩在武,刘杰..气象因子对西安城市用电量的影响研究及中长期系统化预测[J].气象,2016,(1):54-60,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（71171115）、西安市软科学项目和江苏省自然科学基金项目（BK20141481）共同资助 （）
