气象Issue(1)：97-106,10.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.01.012
边界强迫场订正的区域气候模式对2013年夏季中国东部极端高温预测的改进试验
The Improvement of Predicting Extreme Heat Event of Eastern China in Summer 2013 Through Correcting Lateral Boundary Condition of Regional Climate Model
摘要
Abstract
The 28-year hindcast experiments (1983 -2010)and the 2013 summer prediction are performed by using regional climate model (RegCM3)which is embedded in the global atmosphere ocean coupled model (BCC CM1.0)whose climatological means are adjusted based on the NCEP-R2 reanalysis datasets.A traditional dynami-cal downscaling (TDD)parallel run by using RegCM3 that is driven by original BCC CM1.0 output is also conduc-ted.The results indicate that after using GCM (Global Climate Model)bias corrected method,the capability of hindcasting multi-year mean summer temperature and precipitation is greatly improved.Compared to TDD ap-proach,although the predictability of temperature anomaly in northeastern China declines,the prediction of sum-mer extreme heat event over the central part of Eastern China in 2013 is remarkably enhanced.The enhanced performance of hindcasting multi-year averaged Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH)mainly leads to the im-provement of predicting summer extreme heat event in 2013.关键词
2013 年夏季极端高温/区域气候模式/边界强迫场订正/回报试验/跨季度季节预测Key words
extreme heat event in summer of 2013/regional climate model/GCM bias corrected method/hindcast experiments/extra-seasonal prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
董广涛,陈葆德,陈伯民,史军..边界强迫场订正的区域气候模式对2013年夏季中国东部极端高温预测的改进试验[J].气象,2016,(1):97-106,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（41205060和41571044）、公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306021）、国家重大基础研究计划项目（2012CB956000）、中国科学院战略性先导科技专项子课题（XDA05090204）、江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目（CXLX120492）和上海市气象局研究型业务专项（YJ201502）共同资助 （）
