摘要
Abstract
China's economy will develop rapidly in the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Energy resources stimulate the continuous development of China. The development of high-quality new energy and the use of advanced ener-gy technologies are an important condition for the development of China and the world. During the next two or three decades, China will be facing increased demand, population growth, environmental constraints and chal-lenges and other problems, the appropriate production and energy consumption structure will have to have a major adjustment. Scientific and appropriate prediction about supply and demand for energy can not only help effectively make China's energy development strategy planning for decades in the future, but also have important theoretical and practical significance on the promotion of rapid and smooth eco-economic growth, as well as on the construc-tion of a harmonious society. This paper, by using the GM (1,1) prediction method, through predictions of future energy production and consumption, compares the total energy production and consumption gap so as to provide a practical reference for rational energy blueprints in the future. Influencing factors on China's energy supply and de-mand include resource endowments, level of technology, national investment, economic growth, industrial struc-ture, demographic change and aging. Therefore, while improving the structure of energy supply and demand, it is necessary to increase scientific and technological development, strengthen energy security policy, and promote in-ternational cooperation in oil and gas resources. Finally, after fully grasping the basic situation of energy supply and demand forecast, the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions for the development in the coming decades in China.关键词
能源供需/灰色预测/发展对策Key words
Supply and Demand of Energy/Grey Prediction/Development Policy分类
管理科学
