摘要
Abstract
By using the time series data of the primary products imports, exports and GDP from 1990 to 2013, the paper analyzes the relationship of the primary products import and export and the economic growth in China. The analysis is established on the basis of the dynamic time series model. The results show that: The export and import and economic growth are integrated of order 1 after logarithm; There is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between the three variables; It is suitable to set up the vector error correction model on the basis of the co-integration relationship; It is conducive to further economic growth and predict primary products import and ex-port. There is unidirectional causality between economic growth and imports and exports of primary products, and primary products do not constitute a causal relationship between imports and exports.关键词
初级产品进出口/经济增长/平稳性/协整检验/向量误差修正模型/因果关系检验Key words
Primary Products Import and Export/Economic Growth/Stationary and Co-integration Test/Vec-tor Error Correct Model/Causality Test分类
管理科学
