气象Issue(2)：129-143,15.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.02.001
三类强对流天气临近预报的模糊检验试验与对比
Fuzzy Verification Test and Comparison of Three Types of Severe Convective Weather Nowcasting
摘要
Abstract
Severe convective weather is hard to forecast because of the character of small scale and rapid de-velopment.Fuzzy verification methods can get evaluation information at different spatial scales by using a spatial window or neighborhood surrounding the forecast and/or observed points,and are introduced into the verification of severe convective weather in this article.Focusing on the three types of severe convec-tive weather,some operational nowcasting products like as one-hour reflectivity extrapolation product of the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA)SWAN (Severe Weather Analysis and Nowcasting) system,are verified using the fuzzy method.Then,three ideal severe convective weather models are also built and verified to give a further study on the above-mentioned methods.The results show that compared to traditional metrics with the stagey of “point to point”,fuzzy verification can glean additional information in different scales and evaluation strategies,evaluating forecasts more comprehensively and objectively. Based on different evaluation strategies,one forecast has different optimal scales and each fuzzy verification method has its own feature and application.When forecast has large bias,fuzzy verification methods can still give effective or “useful”scores while traditional metric can only give poor scores.For the severe con-vective events with characteristics of high thresholds and small scales,the fuzzy verification methods inclu-ding minimum coverage with low fraction,fuzzy logic and multi-event contingency table show more poten-tial value than the traditional ones.关键词
模糊检验/强对流天气/临近预报/高分辨率Key words
fuzzy verification/severe convective weather/nowcasting/high resolution分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李佰平,戴建华,张欣,王啸华..三类强对流天气临近预报的模糊检验试验与对比[J].气象,2016,(2):129-143,15.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201006002）资助 （）
