气象Issue(2)：213-220,8.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.2.009
一种简化的暴雨灾害风险及影响评估方法和应用研究--以京津冀“7·21”暴雨事件为例
Simplified Assessment Method and Application Research of Rainstorm Disaster Risk and Impact---Using Jing-Jin-Ji “7.21”Heavy Rain as an Example
摘要
Abstract
According to the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the rainfall and the geographic features,China is divided into four rainfall areas.On this basis,we developed the different assessment methods of the intensity grade of the heavy rains for every rainfall area.At the same time,elevation, standard deviation of elevation,drainage density and soil types have been identified as import controlling factors of the torrential rain disasters,and these factors were respectively classified into different grades. The comprehensive rainstorm disaster risk assessment model is established by weighted summation of the rainfall factors and the selected controlling factors.Based on the model,we further applied GIS to evaulate the number of affected urban and rural residents and land areas in different risk levels.Compared with the previous rainstorm risk assessment models,this rainstorm risk assessment model can be applied more widely in any regional rainstorm disaster risk assessment.Moreover,this model has stronger operation a-bility of pre-assessment,real-time assesment and post-assessment by using real-time or forecast rainfall data.Finally,combined with GIS,this model can achieve quantitative evaluation of the hazard-affected bodies at the different risk levels.关键词
暴雨/致灾因子/孕灾环境/灾害风险/承灾体/定量评估Key words
rainstorm/disaster-inducing factors/hazard-inducing environment/disaster risk/hazard-af-fected bodies/quantitative evaluation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王秀荣,吕终亮,王莉萍,蒋卫国,马国斌..一种简化的暴雨灾害风险及影响评估方法和应用研究--以京津冀“7·21”暴雨事件为例[J].气象,2016,(2):213-220,8.基金项目
中国工程院重大咨询项目“国家公共安全科技发展战略研究”之“自然灾害加测预警科技发展规划研究”课题（2014-ZD-02）和中国气象局决策气象服务专项共同资助 （）
