水利水电科技进展Issue(2)：10-15,6.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2016.02.003
气候变化和人类活动对大凌河上游流域径流的影响
Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in upper Daling River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Based on the trend analysis method and the change-point testing method, trends of the hydro-meteorological elements for the Daling River Basin were detected. The annual runoff time series was divided into a “natural period” and an “impacted period” based on the human activities characteristics and change point analysis results for the river basin. A hydrological model was established based on hydrological, meteorological, and land use data from the upper Daling River Basin. Through the elastic coefficient method and hydrological simulation method, the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the study area were analyzed quantitatively. The results show that the precipitation of the study area has been increasing slightly during 1956—2006, and the potential evapotranspiration and runoff show a significant decreasing trend, mainly due to human activities.关键词
气候变化/人类活动/径流变化/水文模型/大凌河流域Key words
climate change/human activities/runoff change/hydrological model/Daling River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴丽,张爱静..气候变化和人类活动对大凌河上游流域径流的影响[J].水利水电科技进展,2016,(2):10-15,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(514041143,51274110,51304106) （514041143,51274110,51304106）
