太平洋学报Issue(3)：48-58,11.DOI:10.14015/j.cnki.1004-8049.2016.3.006
阿基诺政府南海政策转变的国内推动与限制因素及未来趋势预判
The Change of Aquino Administration’s South China Sea Policy:Domestic Factors and Future Trend
摘要
Abstract
At the beginning of his tenure,Aquino Ⅲ shifted the Philippine military's traditional focus on internal security away to external defence,adopted the South China Sea policy of using the U.S.against China and exploited the oil source of the South China Sea without China.When its policy suffered setbacks, Aquino administration refused to negotiate with China,but instead tying the Philippines'South China Sea policy with U.S.Asia-Pacific strategy.Family politics,group thinking and pro-American tradition are the basic reasons that promoted the change of Aquino administration's South China Sea policy.However,the ongoing insurgency and domestic opposition to U.S.army's new deployment hindered its policy's develop-ment.Given Aquino administration's South China Sea policy not making actual profit for the Philippines and many senior officials in Aquino administration facing corruption allegations,the next government in 2016 may adopt a new South China Sea policy.As Aquino government's South China Sea policy is ossified and its term is about to expire,China should focus on the trend of the Philippine next government's policy.In order to help presidential candidates who tend to improve relations with China get more political space,China also need to achieve equilibrium between safeguarding the sovereignty of the South China Sea and showing good-will to the Philippines.关键词
菲律宾/阿基诺政府/南海政策/国内因素Key words
the Philippines/Aquino Administration/the South China Sea Policy/domestic factor分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
邵先成..阿基诺政府南海政策转变的国内推动与限制因素及未来趋势预判[J].太平洋学报,2016,(3):48-58,11.基金项目
本文是国家社科基金重大项目“中国南海问题主张的国际传播战略与国际话语权体系研究”（14ZDB164）的阶段性成果。 （）
