灾害学Issue(1)：148-152,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.01.028
气象灾害对粮食生产的影响研究--以福建省为例
Research on Impact of Meteorological Disasters on Food Production---Taking Fujian Province for Example
摘要
Abstract
Based on statistics from 1984 to 2013,the change trend of grain outputs and meteorological disas-ters are analyzed in Fujian province.The effects of 5 kinds of meteorological disasters on 5 kinds of food production are analyzed by sensitivity analysis and correlation analysis respectively.On this basis,some policy recommenda-tions are put forward in order to provide references for the sustainable development and scientific decision-making of grain production.Results showed that:①Meteorological disasters had negative impacts on grain yieldin Fujian.②Typhoon had the greatest impacts on food production in Fujian,followed by wind-hail.The general-strength and high-strength typhoon had the greatest impacts on rice and wheat respectively,but the general-strength and high-strength wind-hail had the greatest impacts on corn and wheat respectively.③As the meteorological disaster-affect-ed and disaster-inundated rate changed 1%,the grain yield changed 6.35% and 21.56% respectively in Fu-jian.Rice,corn,potato,soybean are the most sensitive to the general-strength drought and the high-strength wind-hailrespectively,in which potato and soybean are the most sensitive respectively.Only wheat is the most sensitive to the general-strength and high-strength frost.关键词
粮食生产/气象灾害/相关分析/敏感性分析/福建省Key words
food production/meteorological disaster/correlation analysis/sensitivity analysis/Fujian prov-ince分类
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田贵良,林志宇..气象灾害对粮食生产的影响研究--以福建省为例[J].灾害学,2016,(1):148-152,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“基于粮食安全的虚拟水贸易对气候变化动态响应与调整”（41471456）；国家自然科学基金项目“区域经济系统虚拟水（VW）测算的可计算非线性动态水资源 I －O 模型研究” （）
