灾害学Issue(1)：201-206,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.01.037
气候变化背景下我国城市高温热浪的风险分析与评估
Risk Analysis and Assessment of High-temperature and Heat-wave Disaster in Chinese Cities Under the Background of Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the variation trends of high-temperature and heat-wave in the background of climate change,we considered a conceptual framework of high-temperature and heat-wave disaster risk from the point of view of risk analysis.We investigate the characteristics of frequency and intensity of high-temperature and heat-wave from 1983 to 2012 based on Chinese terrestrial climatic data sets of daily records.In the interest of hesitant circumstances for decision makers,we build a model of evaluation combing Hesitant Analytic Hierarchy Process (H-AHP)and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS),which is eventually veri-fied by analyzing six cities in the East China.It can be concluded that the model we constructed is efficient in high-temperature and heat-wave risk index system,and the result of evaluation is close to the reality,the thought-way can be referenced in other climate disasters assessment.关键词
高温热浪/犹豫层次分析法/TOPSIS/风险评估/蒙特卡洛模拟Key words
high-temperature and heat-wave/H-AHP/TOPSIS/risk assessment/Monte Carlo Simulation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
宋晨阳,王锋,张韧,白成祖,刘科峰,龙强..气候变化背景下我国城市高温热浪的风险分析与评估[J].灾害学,2016,(1):201-206,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金（41276088）；唐山市曹妃甸工业区专项 （）
