长江科学院院报Issue(3)：14-18,5.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20140910
水文序列延长后已建水库防洪特征水位复核
Recheck of Characteristic Flood Level for Built Reservoir after Extension of Hydrologic Time Series
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the influence of uncertainty of flood on design of characteristic flood level for dam, we derive probability distribution of characteristic flood level ( CFL) for dam by using stochastic differential equation for calculation of flood regulation. Three Gorges reservoir is selected as a case study. The uncertainty of flood is transformed into that of CFL so as to analyze probability distribution of CFL through calculation of flood regulation. On this basis, we recheck the CFL of Three Gorges reservoir. The results show that, 1) reliabilities of design flood data and original exceptional flood level (180.4 m) increase with the increase of sample size;2) under sample size of 120a, reliability of design flood data and reliability of CFL are 93.19% and 99.17%, respectively. Finally, the research results provide theoretical basis for improvement in safety design of dam reservoir.关键词
水文序列/防洪特征水位/不确定性/随机微分方程/特征水位复核/三峡水库Key words
hydrologic time series/characteristic flood level/uncertainty/stochastic differential equation/recheck of characteristic flood level/Three Gorges Reservoir分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
周研来,陈进,许继军..水文序列延长后已建水库防洪特征水位复核[J].长江科学院院报,2016,(3):14-18,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（51509008）；湖北省自然科学基金项目（2015CFA157，2015CFB217）；“湖北省高端人才引领培养计划第一层次人选”计划项目（2013-2017）；武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目 （）
