计算机与数字工程Issue(2)：193-196,236,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-9722.2016.02.001
基于灰色预测和 BP 神经网络模型的云南省人口总量预测研究
Population Prediction Research in Yunnan Province Based on Grey Prediction and BP Neural Network
摘要
Abstract
The population problem has always been a key issue in the economic growth and social stability ,so scientific and accurate forecast of the population is becoming more and more important .In this paper ,by using the total population of yunnan province in China statistical yearbook data ,simulation the population from 2000 to 2013 by the grey prediction model and BP neural network model ,considering the limitations of single forecasting model ,then using the method of standard de‐viation to weight distribution of single forecasting results ,that is the combined forecasting model .Model results show that the combined forecasting model is superior to the single grey prediction model and BP neural network model ,and it has high precision .Finally the population from 2014 to 2025 is forecasted by combined forecasting model ,the results show that the population will exceed 50 million until 2024 ,and the population growth remain at around 0 .6% .关键词
灰色预测/BP 神经网络/组合预测模型Key words
grey prediction/BP neural network/combination forecasting method分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
何思兰,孙红兵..基于灰色预测和 BP 神经网络模型的云南省人口总量预测研究[J].计算机与数字工程,2016,(2):193-196,236,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金“创新型企业持续创新机遇的决策模式与机制研究”（编号71262016）；国家自然科学基金“节能减排进程中高耗能产业群循环经济协同效应与协调优化研究”（编号71463031）资助。 （）
