交通信息与安全Issue(1)：37-44,63,9.DOI:10.3963/j.issn 1674-4861.2016.01.001
通航城市民航旅客吞吐量预测模型∗
A Forecasting Model for Estimating Passenger Throughput of Civil Aviation at Navigable City
摘要
Abstract
Forecast of the passenger throughput of civil aviation is an important prerequisite for determining the timing and size of construction of airports.When proposing a forecasting model of passenger flow suitable for newly con-structed airports and improve the forecast accuracy of the traditional models,it should not only analyze the influences of social economy on passenger throughput of civil aviation,but also consider the factors,such as the structure of aviation network,etc.Meanwhile,in order to tackle the multicollinearity issue and ensure the accuracy of this model,a set of model forms are systematically compared.Results show that the passenger throughput of civil aviation in navigable cities is significantly affected by the output of tertiary industry,number of tourists,average path length and node degree.The explanatory power of the proposed forecasting model for the passenger throughput of civil aviation reaches 97.4%,and the forecast errors of most cities are within 10%.The proposed forecasting model has a high forecast accuracy.However, the forecast accuracy for some tourism cities or edge cities are found to be lower.关键词
航空运输/民航旅客吞吐量/预测模型/数理统计/社会经济/航空网络Key words
aviation transportation/civil aviation passenger throughput/forecasting model/mathematical statis-tics/social economy/civil aviation network分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
彭挺,张亚平,郝斯琪,付川云..通航城市民航旅客吞吐量预测模型∗[J].交通信息与安全,2016,(1):37-44,63,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金民航联合研究基金项目(61179069、U1233124)资助 （61179069、U1233124）
