交通信息与安全Issue(1)：116-122,7.DOI:10.3963/j.issn 1674-4861.2016.01.001
限行政策对道路交通流的影响研究--以天津市为例∗
A Study of the Impact of Vehicle Restriction Policies on Traffic Flow:A Case Study of Tianjin
摘要
Abstract
The effectiveness of the restriction policies has always been controversial since their wide implementa-tions at home and abroad.A multivariate linear regression model has been applied to quantitatively evaluate the impact of restriction policies on traffic flow of motor vehicles in a case study of Tianjin.The variation of traffic flow of motor vehi-cles after the implementation of restriction policies is investigated in different times of the day.By selecting different inde-pendent variables and dependent variables for the regression analyses,the impact of tail-number restriction policy on traf-fic flow of weekdays,the impact at road intersections,and variations of vehicle traffic flows on weekends are studied.It is shown that the traffic flow is closely related to the restriction rules.The traffic flows of workdays at major road intersec-tions are reduced by 1 6% at most while a maximum reduction rate of 27.4% is resulted by odd-even license plate rule dur-ing the APEC.Moreover,the traffic flow before the morning rush hour increased by 23.7% on weekdays when the two-number restriction policy is applied,indicating that people tend to travel earlier to work around the restriction policies. Traffic flow on weekend increases 8% ~ 22% after the implementation of two-number restriction policy on weekdays, suggesting more flexible travel demand are being shifted to weekends.关键词
交通管理/限行政策/影响评价/多元线性回归模型/尾号限行/单双号限行Key words
traffic management/vehicle restrictions/impact evaluation/multiple linear regression model/Tail re-strictions/odd-and-even license plate rule分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
杨雨,李庚,王蓉,邱鹏,贾宁..限行政策对道路交通流的影响研究--以天津市为例∗[J].交通信息与安全,2016,(1):116-122,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71271150)资助 （71271150）
