南水北调与水利科技Issue(1)：50-53,83,5.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.01.008
非一致性条件下水文设计值估计方法探讨
Study on the estimation of design value under non-stationary environment
摘要
Abstract
In non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis ( N SH FA) , w ith the purpose of considering t he im pact of envi-ronm ent change on the characteristic of distribution function of hydrological extrem e series, the parameter of distribution function is usually regarded as the funct ion of tim e or other fact ors ( precipitation, tem perature, etc. ) , w hich leads to the fact that the design value related to a given return period varies w ith tim e or ot her driving factors change. That is to say that dur-ing the design life period, for the given design standard, the corresponding design value obtained by the NSH FA m ethod is changeable, w hich makes it be difficult to em ploy the concept of return period and design value in t raditional frequency anal-ysis ( T FA) to NSH FA. T herefore, the paper introduces the" equivalent reliability" m ethod to solve hydrological design problems under non-stationary case. The"equivalent reliability"m eans t hat the design reliability of the hydraulic engineering is the same bot h in stationary and non-stationary conditions. Meanw hile, using"equivalent reliabilit y" m ethod can establish the relat ionship betw een NSH FA and T FA , w hich ensures the coordination of hydrological design obtained by NSH FA w ith TFA.关键词
非一致性/水文频率分析/重现期/设计值/等可靠度Key words
non-stationary/hydrological frequency analysis/return period/design value/equivalent reliability分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
梁忠民,胡义明,黄华平,王军,李彬权..非一致性条件下水文设计值估计方法探讨[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,(1):50-53,83,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190095) （51190095）
国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAB06B01)Fund：Major Prog ram of National Natural Science Fundation of China (51190095) （2013BAB06B01）
National Science and Technologg Support Plan (2013BAB06B01) （2013BAB06B01）
