上海国土资源2016，Vol.37Issue(1)：4-8,13,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1329.2016.01.002
土地市场景气指数编制的探索与实践 以上海土地市场为例
The investigation and application of the establishment of the prosperity index for land transaction markets：The Shanghai case study
摘要
Abstract
The establishment of the Shanghai land market prosperity index provides an important means of monitoring and early warning, in the Shanghai land market. Based on the business cycle theory and the reality of Shanghai, this article proposes some index factors affecting the land market situation in Shanghai. It then constructs the prosperity index at present and for a future date, from which it synthesizes the prosperity index for the Shanghai land market. The objective and subjective synthetic approach is used to determine the weightage of each factor. The empirical results thus obtained ensure that the establishment of each index is reasonable and effective. Then, the prosperity warning signal system of the Shanghai land market is further strengthened and tested. The empirical test proves that the system settings are fairly accurate. When the land market is too ‘cold’ or too ‘hot’, the relevant government departments can take appropriate measures to ensure that the operation of the land market stays within a rational lfuctuation range. The prosperity index and the prosperity warning signal system of the Shanghai land market wil continue to be constantly optimized in the future.关键词
土地市场/动态监测/指标体系/景气指数/编制方法/预警系统Key words
land market/trends monitoring/index system/prosperity index/establishment method/warning system分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
庄幼绯,卢为民,毛鹰翱,李毅..土地市场景气指数编制的探索与实践 以上海土地市场为例[J].上海国土资源,2016,37(1):4-8,13,6.基金项目
上海市土地交易事务中心2014年度科研课题“上海土地市场景气指数和监测预警系统研究”(SLTC2014002) （SLTC2014002）
