运筹与管理2016，Vol.25Issue(1)：110-116,7.DOI:10.12005/orms.2016.0015
航班飞行计划中燃油计算的风险传导分析
The Research on Risk Conduction of Fuel Calculation in Flight Planning
陈洁 1池宏 1邵雪焱1
作者信息
- 1. 中国科学院 科技政策与管理科学研究所，北京 100190
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The fuel planning is made by the Airplane Operation Control Department based on airworthiness infor -mation, navigational data , weather data , alternate airport and other factors from different departments .Deviation of any information above may result in failure on accuracy of planning , causing unsafe conditions to flights .A calculation model is constructed to quantify the effect of input on the output , basing on the mechanism analysis of fuel-planning .Meanwhile , a safety risk conduction problem is studied to quantitatively describe the flow of devi-ation through the fuel -planning process .The relationship between the deviation of the weigt-of-TOC and the landing residual oil is analyzed with Monte Carlo simulation .The feasibility and the validity of our research are verified through the case study .关键词
风险管理/流程管理/飞行计划/运行控制/数理统计/蒙特卡洛Key words
risk management/process management/flight planning/operation control/statistics/monte carlo分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈洁,池宏,邵雪焱..航班飞行计划中燃油计算的风险传导分析[J].运筹与管理,2016,25(1):110-116,7.
