中国卫生资源2016，Vol.19Issue(2)：130-133,4.DOI:10.13688/j.cnki.chr.2016.15254
上海市执业（助理）医师的现状和预测
The status and forecast of licensed (assistant) doctors in Shanghai
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the status of licensed(assistant) doctors in Shanghai in 2013 and forecast the quantity in 2020,for the goal of providing the basis for the health manpower planning.Methods:Time series method, ratio of health care staffs relative to population approach,ratio of health care staffs relative to hospital beds approach as well as health service demand approach were applied to forecast the quantity of licensed(assistant) doctors in Shanghai in 2020.Results:The number of licensed(assistant) doctors per 1 000 persons on average was 2.40 in Shanghai in 2013. According to the four approaches mentioned,the quantity of licensed(assistant) doctors in Shanghai in 2020 will be 66 794(2.52 per 1 000 persons),66 253(2.50 per 1 000 persons),66 378(2.50 per 1 000 persons) and 67 964 to 77 588(2.56 to 2.93 per 1 000 persons),respectively.Conclusion:The number of licensed(assistant) doctors will be up to 66 253 to 77 588(2.50 to 2.93 per 1 000 persons) in Shanghai in 2020. Each method above has advantages and disadvantages,which needs to be adjusted according to the actual circumstance when planning.关键词
执业(助理)医师/现状/预测/上海市Key words
licensed(assistant) doctor/status/forecast/Shanghai分类
预防医学引用本文复制引用
王敏,孙梅,李程跃,吕军,姜立文,倪艳华,陈雯,郝模..上海市执业（助理）医师的现状和预测[J].中国卫生资源,2016,19(2):130-133,4.基金项目
教育部创新团队项目（IRT_13R11）；国家社科基金重点项目（13AZD081）；国家自然科学基金项目（71373004，71003025，71303058）；教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金（20120071110055）；上海市卫生和计划生育委员会卫生计生政策研究课题项目（2015-Z-M05）；“上海市卫生人才规划研究”项目 （）
