华东交通大学学报2016，Vol.33Issue(2)：63-71,9.
福建省旅游包车客运需求分析
Analysis of Passenger Transport Demand for Tour Charter in Fujian Province
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at analyzing the passenger transport demand for tour charter in Fujian Province,this study dis-cusses the current development situation of tourism in Fujian Province and explores the unbalanced tourism econ-omy among districts and cities of Fujian Province. According to weight distribution principle based on Shapley value method,by use of combination forecasting model of GM (1,1) and ARIMA (p,d,q), it forecasts the number of tourists for the next 5 years in Fujian Province,which shows that the number of tourists would further increase and even is likely to reach 414388100. In light of the forecasting results,suggestions for tourism capacity and the revision of relevant policies are proposed to achieve better and faster development of tourism in Fujian Province.关键词
包车客运/需求分析/GM(1,1)/ARIMA(p,d,q)/组合预测Key words
charter of passenger transport/analysis of demand/GM(1,1)/ARIMA(p,d,q)/combination forecast-ing分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
陈清耀,陈诚,柯法滔,张兰怡,侯秀英..福建省旅游包车客运需求分析[J].华东交通大学学报,2016,33(2):63-71,9.基金项目
福建省科技厅重点项目资助 （）
