生态与农村环境学报2016，Vol.32Issue(2)：277-282,6.DOI:10.11934/j.issn.1673-4831.2016.02.016
基于Mann-Kendall检验和重标极差分析的水质变化趋势
Analysis of Variation Trend of Water Quality Based on Mann-Kendall Test and Rescaled Range Analysis
摘要
Abstract
A comprehensive set of methods was established based on Mann⁃Kendall test and rescaled range ( R/S) analy⁃sis for analysis of variation trends of water quality in the past and future. Firstly, seasonal Mann⁃Kendall tests were per⁃formed to determine variation trend of water quality time series in the past. And then, R/S analysis was done used to cal⁃culate Hurst indexes ( IH ) of the water quality time series ( 0<IH<0�5, 0�5<IH<1�0 and IH = 0�5 indicates anti⁃persistence, persistence and white noise characteristics, respectively) . And in the end, variation trend of water quality in future was extrapolated by taking into comprehensive account the water environment protection program and its progress. Furthermore, this approach was demonstrated using the data of TN concentrations and CODMn in the Shanxi Reservoir and its six tributaries during the period of 2010-2014 as an example. Results show that water quality in most of its tributaries will stop deteriorating or go on improving in future, but TN in the reservoir will not display any declining trend, because the reservoir has a high TN retention capacity and numerous pollution sources. The reservoir has a long way to go before its water quality is fundamentally improved. In addition to keeping on controlling incoming pollution from its tributaries, coun⁃termeasures should be taken to control pollution of the water⁃level⁃fluctuating⁃zone and its endogenous pollution.关键词
水质/变化趋势/Mann-Kendall检验/重标极差分析/长程相关性Key words
water quality/variation trend/Mann-Kendall test/rescaled range analysis/long-term correlation分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
董旭,梅琨,商栩,黄树辉,黄宏..基于Mann-Kendall检验和重标极差分析的水质变化趋势[J].生态与农村环境学报,2016,32(2):277-282,6.基金项目
温州市公益性科技计划（ S20140014）；温州市水体污染控制与治理科技创新项目（ S20140039，S20140037）；温州医科大学人才科研启动基金（ QTJ14045）；浙江省自然科学基金 （）
