情报杂志2016，Vol.35Issue(2)：81-87,115,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2016.02.015
国内外技术预见研究的热点和趋势分析
Hotpots and Trends of Technology Foresight Research at Home and Abroad
摘要
Abstract
Purpose/Significance]Taking Web of Science and China Academic Journal Network Publishing Database (CNKI) as data sources, this article conducts analyses of the research countries, the hotspots and trends in China and abroad on technology foresight (TF) research for the purpose of providing references and suggestions to the future technology research of China. [ Method/Process] The paper uses the entropy coefficient method on bibliometrics for WOS papers for comprehensive evaluation of national academic influence. We in-troduce link prediction method to keywords co-occurrence network to detect new possible method combinations and to provide new ideas for foresight research in China. The TRIZ technology system evolution rules are used to foresee the trends. [ Result/Conclusion] It is found that the United States holds an absolute advantageous position in the evaluation of national academic influence in TF while China ranks the 11 th;the combination and integration of foresight methods is a research hotspot and trend at home and abroad; the TF study of industrial applications is still weak and the application research of emerging technologies needs to be strengthened.关键词
技术预见/文献计量/熵权/链路预测/技术预见方法Key words
technology foresight/bibliometrics/entropy coefficient/link prediction/technology foresight methods分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
任海英,于立婷,王菲菲..国内外技术预见研究的热点和趋势分析[J].情报杂志,2016,35(2):81-87,115,8.基金项目
北京市自然科学基金预探索项目“发明过程和机理的概念地图表示研究”(编号:9153020)研究成果之一 （编号:9153020）
国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于多维信息计量分析的学术影响力综合评价研究”(编号:15CTQ023)研究成果之一。 （编号:15CTQ023）
