水科学进展2016，Vol.27Issue(1)：100-106,7.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.01.011
基于随机理论的地下水环境风险评价
Groundwater environment risk assessment based on stochastic theory
摘要
Abstract
This paper proposed a methodology on the assessment of groundwater environmental risk based on stochastic theory. A rectangular domain was taken as an example, random field of hydraulic conductivity coefficient is produced by Monte Carlo method, and spatially heterogeneous distribution of aquifer parameters is simulated. Subse-quently groundwater flow and transport model are established and the pollutants migration in groundwater is calculated. The statistical frequency of pollution events in a large number of random simulations is considered to be convergent to pollution probability in sufficient simulation numbers, that is to say, pollution risk is reflected by pollution probability. The proposed method assumes that model parameters are random variable meeting a certain distribution characteristic, which avoids the arbitrary assessment with deterministic method. The conclusions obtained in this study can provide useful insights for site selection of factory and water source.关键词
非确定性模型/环境风险评价/数值模拟/渗透系数随机场Key words
stochastic model/environment risk assessment/numerical simulation/hydraulic conductivity random field分类
地质学引用本文复制引用
张博,李国秀,程品,孙法圣,王洪义..基于随机理论的地下水环境风险评价[J].水科学进展,2016,27(1):100-106,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41572216) The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41572216) . （41572216）
