生物加工过程2016，Vol.14Issue(2)：64-69,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3678.2016.02.012
冷却猪肉阴性样品中气单胞菌概率分布的影响与优选
Effect and optimization of Aeromonas spp probability distribution in negative samples of chilled pork
摘要
Abstract
This study was designed to verify the effects of pathogen in the negative samples on quantitative microbiological risk assessment ( QMRA) . Previous research on QMRA of Aeromonas spp. in chilled pork was taken as an example,and two scenarios of Aeromonas spp. in the negative samples,zero and maximum value ( detection limit) ,respectively,were simulated in quantitative exposure assessment. The predictive food⁃poison probability of the two scenarios was 33�6% and 69�3%,respectively,and these values were higher than the previous results of 22�1% based on Jarvis function to estimate the possible pathogen distribution in negative samples significantly ( P<0�01) . Moreover,Akaike Information Criterion ( AIC) , Bayesian Information Criterion ( BIC) , X2 , and other parameters were applied for evaluating pathogen in negative sample with different continuous probability distributions. Exponential distribution proved to be better than Logistic, Normal, Triangle and Uniform with AIC values equaling to -41�24 and -135�62 under the two simulated scenarios, respectively, lower than the results of other distributions. In conclusion,pathogen distribution in negative sample should be noted and further optimized during QMRA in future.关键词
阴性样品/气单胞菌/概率分布/风险评估Key words
negative sample/Aeromonas spp./probability distribution/risk assessment分类
轻工纺织引用本文复制引用
董庆利,宋筱瑜,丁甜,刘箐..冷却猪肉阴性样品中气单胞菌概率分布的影响与优选[J].生物加工过程,2016,14(2):64-69,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金（31271896、31371776）；上海市科委重点支撑项目（13430502400）；上海市科委长三角科技联合攻关领域项目 （）
