铁道科学与工程学报2016，Vol.13Issue(4)：783-790,8.
基于脉冲响应的公路运输需求与产业结构优化的协整分析
Co-integration analysis between highway transport demand and optimization of industrial structurebased on impulse response
摘要
Abstract
Based on the time series data,the relationship between highway transport demand and optimization of industrial structure along the "New Silk Road"economic belt is studied by virtue of co-integration theory,VAR model,impulse response and Granger causality test.The results show that there is a long-run equilibrium rela-tionship between highway transport demand and three kinds of industrial growth,and highway transport can promote the optimization of industrial structure.Besides,there is no direct causal relationship between highway passenger traffic and the primary and secondary industry.However,a two-way causal relationship between highway passen-ger traffic and the tertiary industry is existed.The relationship between highway freight traffic and the primary and secondary industry are unidirectional causal,while it's relationship with the tertiary industry is two-way causal.关键词
公路运输/产业结构/协整分析/脉冲响应/格兰杰检验Key words
highway transport/industrial structure/co-integration analysis/impulse response/Granger causality test分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
雷天,许金良,单东辉,贾兴利..基于脉冲响应的公路运输需求与产业结构优化的协整分析[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2016,13(4):783-790,8.基金项目
交通运输部西部交通建设科技项目(2011318362810) （2011318362810）
