气象科技进展2016，Vol.6Issue(1)：6-13,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2016.01.001
谈谈统计预报的必要性
The Necessity of Statistical Forecasts
摘要
Abstract
First, weather forecast uncertainty is discussed from the perspective of epistemology, namely, deterministic and probabilistic theory. Today, subjective forecast is increasingly replaced by the numerical weather prediction (NWP), but statistical forecasting is still irreplaceable. In terms of methodology, statistical forecasting is objective induction. Statistical prediction is not limited by predictability of NWP in theory. Statistical forecasting has a correlation or similar method;rare event related with extreme weather can be forecasted in similar method. Ensemble prediction method is a combination of deterministic and probabilistic methods, and is the development direction of the current weather forecast. Finally, there are limitations on statistical prediction itself, and statistical forecasting must be also veriifed by the effect in the forecast practice.关键词
天气预报/统计/相关性/相似性/小概率极端天气Key words
weather forecasts/statistics/correlation/similarity/rare event of extreme weather引用本文复制引用
陶祖钰,赵翠光,陈敏..谈谈统计预报的必要性[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(1):6-13,8.基金项目
资助信息公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200906003， GYHY201206004，GYHY201306023）；国家重点基础研究发展计划 （）
