气象科技进展2016，Vol.6Issue(1)：42-45,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2016.01.007
风电功率预报技术研究综述
Review of the Research for Wind Power Prediction
丁乃千 1陈正洪 2杨宏青 3许杨3
作者信息
- 1. 南京信息工程大学，南京210044
- 2. 恩施州气象局，恩施445000
- 3. 湖北省气象服务中心，武汉430074
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Since the mid of 20th century, Denmark and other Western countries have started the research of wind power forecast, from a single method to ensemble methods, while it started relatively late in our country. Over a very long period of time, the wind farms around the world have been using a single method to forecast wind power and have basically met the wind farm and the whole power system requirements. But, with the rapid development of wind power industry, the increasingly iferce market competition, the traditional single method wouldn’t meet the needs of the future of wind power, while the ensemble forecast can solve this problem to a large extent. The accuracy rate of the traditional single method has reached a relatively high level and it is hard to getting higher level. Assembling the advantages of each method, the new way can greatly enhance the accuracy rate of prediction. This paper mainly focuses on the various traditional forecasting methods, which are expounded comprehensively. Combined with the analysis of experimental comparison of countries, the ensemble prediction is brielfy explained.关键词
风电功率/预测方法/传统/集合预报Key words
wind power/prediction methods/tradition/ensemble forecast引用本文复制引用
丁乃千,陈正洪,杨宏青,许杨..风电功率预报技术研究综述[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(1):42-45,4.
