广东海洋大学学报2016，Vol.36Issue(2)：21-26,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9159.2016.02.004
渔业经济与我国经济增长和经济波动的相关性分析
Analysis on the Correlation between the Fishery Output and China's Economic Growth and Economic Fluctuation
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,thoughour country fishery economy is growing stably, fishery economy outputs have depended more and more on the overall regulation of national macro economy.It is important to research the correlation between fishery outputand economic development .TheH-P filtering method is used to study the long trend of 2002-2014 years quarter fishery output and GAP which is the typical representation of the gross economy.According tothe above results,asymmetric conditions heteroscedastic EGARCH model and conditional volatilitycurve arerespectivelybuiltto analyzethe correlation between them.With the help of Granger causal relation to further verification, we canfinally conclude that the GAP growth and fishery output affect each other,andthe growth of fishery output can promote economy. The fishery fluctuation is the feedback on economic cycle fluctuation, but fishery output value accounted forasmall proportion of the national economy so that its fluctuation will not bring the economic fluctuation obviously. Therefore, in the new cycle of economic development,the main policy goals are stillupgrading fishery and protecting resource .关键词
渔业经济/H-P滤波/EGARCH模型/周期波动/相关性Key words
fishery economy/H-P filtering/EGARCH model/periodic fluctuation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
田璐,高强,刘入嘉..渔业经济与我国经济增长和经济波动的相关性分析[J].广东海洋大学学报,2016,36(2):21-26,6.基金项目
中国海洋发展研究会重点研究项目《我国海洋生态安全标准及预警机制研究》（CAMAZD201403）、国家海洋局公益性行业科研专项《海洋强国建设的评价体系研究及应用》 （）
