干旱地区农业研究2016，Vol.34Issue(2)：201-205,5.DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.02.32
黑龙江大豆生产时空分析与风险评估
Spatial and temporal analysis of soybean production and its risk assessment in Heilongjiang
摘要
Abstract
In the context of sharp decrease in soybean yield and gradual increase of natural disasters in Hei-longjiang ,the information about the spatial and temporal distribution of soybean and the corresponding production risk were very useful for making planting and insurance policies ,which would enhance food security .Based on the data of soybean yield in Heilongjiang from 1993 to 2012 ,the spatial and temporal variations of soybean yield were analyzed using the mathematical statistics method ,and production risks of 14 areas in Heilongjiang were estimated using the yield distri-bution model .The results indicated that the soybean yield of Heilongjiang reached a maximum of 7 480 thousands tones in 2005 ,and became decreased sharply to 4 634 thousands tones in 2012 .Qiqihaer ,ARB and Heihe were the three main soybean production areas that accounted for 55 .73% of soybean yield in Heilongjiang in 2012 ,and the correspond-ing production risks were 41 .61% ,18 .78% and 41 .11% ,respectively .In Heilongjiang province ,the lowest soybean production risk area was ARB ,and the highest was Daxinganling reaching 46 .42% in 2012 .Priority in disaster preven-tion and financial subsidization would need to be given to Qiqihaer and Heihe due to their large yield and high production risk .关键词
大豆/单产分布模型/风险评估Key words
soybean/yield distribution model/risk assessment分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨晓娟,刘园,白薇,刘布春..黑龙江大豆生产时空分析与风险评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(2):201-205,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金 （）
