经济数学2016，Vol.33Issue(1)：1-6,6.
罕见灾难事件的福利减损效应研究
The Welfare Loss Effect of Rare Disaster Event
摘要
Abstract
By changing random consumption function,this paper constructed a theory model containing the rare disaster state.Based on this theory model and China consumption data,the welfare loss effect of rare disaster event was estimated . The study shows that:the welfare loss of rare disaster event is quite large.Within reasonable parameters range,it can be dozen times of common economic fluctuation.The longer the rare disaster state duration,the more significant the welfare loss.Sec-ondly,appropriate disaster prevention and mitigation measures can reduce disaster risk effectively,and get considerable welfare benefits when disaster occurs.Therefore,scientific and rational macroeconomic policies are still necessary,their role mainly re-flects on shortening the length of macroeconomic in rare disaster state,reducing the rare disasters probability and alleviating the recession extent after the rare disaster happens.关键词
经济波动/罕见灾难/福利损失Key words
economic fluctuations/rare disaster/welfare loss分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
丁志帆..罕见灾难事件的福利减损效应研究[J].经济数学,2016,33(1):1-6,6.基金项目
国家社会科学基金资助项目(14CJL019) （14CJL019）
