气象2016，Vol.42Issue(4)：398-405,8.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.04.002
Logistic判别模型在强降水预报中的应用
Application of the Logistic Discriminant Model in Heavy Rain Forecasting
摘要
Abstract
The logistic discriminant model (LDM)is used in the heavy rainfall forecasting with three differ-ent schemes.In Scheme 1 ,14 impact factors are imported into the model directly so that the model has high simulation skill but low forecast skill because of the colinearity effect among the factors and noise sig-nals .In Scheme 2 ,the principal component analysis is applied to all the impact factors and only the first 6 leading principal components are used in building the model.Compared to Scheme 1 ,the simulation skill in Scheme 2 is lower but the forecast skill is higher due to the elimination of both colinearity effect and noise signals.In Scheme 3 ,the Bootstrap sampling technique is applied to get sub-samples in order to obtain the model parameters.Thus the fluctuations in the original time series have been disturbed and only the stable information is remained.Though both the degree of freedom in the fitting and the simulation skill in this scheme are lower than in Scheme 2,the forecast skill is the highest of all the three schemes.Based on above results and by using the forecast data of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts),an obj ective LDM heavy rainfall forecasting system has been established and used in the fore-casting operation at the National Meteorological Centre of China.Verification results in 2013-2014 indicate that the TS skill using the LDM scheme is generally higher than using the numerical model outputs directly.关键词
Logistic判别模型/强降水预报/主成分分析/Bootstrap抽样Key words
logistic discriminant model (LDM)/heavy rain forecast/principal component analysis/Boot-strap sampling分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张芳华,曹勇,徐珺,陶亦为,金荣花,代刊..Logistic判别模型在强降水预报中的应用[J].气象,2016,42(4):398-405,8.基金项目
中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项（CMAHX20160101）、国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2012CB417205）和国家自然科学基金面上项目（41175048）共同资助 （）
