气象2016，Vol.42Issue(4)：496-506,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.04.014
2015年汛期气候预测先兆信号的综合分析
Overview of the Precursory Signals of Seasonal Climate Prediction in Summer 2015
摘要
Abstract
The precursory signals and their application in the short-term climate prediction of the flood sea-son in 2015 are reviewed in this paper.During the winter and spring in 2015,the thermal condition of the underlying surface exhibited some anomalous features.The El Ni˜no event continued to develop and experi-enced a transition from the warm pool type to the cold tongue type.The warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA)in the basin wide Indian Ocean continued to develop.The triple SSTA mode in the North Atlantic was in its positive phase.The sea ice extent was below normal in the Arctic and above normal in the Antarctic.The snow cover was below normal in Eurasia but above normal in the Tibetan Plateau. Among all the above features,the El Ni˜no event and the warm tropical Indian Ocean were considered to be the most important factor for the prediction.In early April,based on the possible impact of the El Ni˜no event and the dynamical model prediction,it was predicted that the East Asian summer monsoon would be weaker than normal and the precipitation would be more than normal in the southern part of East China and less in the northern part.In late May,a modification of the prediction was issued based on the possible impact from the warm SSTA in Indian Ocean and the weak cross-equator flow in the South Hemisphere. Based on thorough investigation and analyses,the main features of the East Asian summer monsoon,the precipitation anomaly pattern in China and the maj or rainy seasons during summer were successfully pre-dicted.Finally,this paper discusses some disadvantages of the prediction in summer 2015 as well.关键词
汛期/先兆信号/厄尔尼诺/东亚夏季风/多雨带Key words
flood season/precursory signals/El Ni˜no/East Asia summer monsoon/main rainfall belt分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈丽娟,顾薇,丁婷,袁媛,任宏利..2015年汛期气候预测先兆信号的综合分析[J].气象,2016,42(4):496-506,11.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2015CB453203和2013CB430203）及国家自然科学基金项目（41275073）共同资助 （）
