气象学报2016，Vol.74Issue(2)：244-258,15.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2016.019
不同大尺度强迫条件下考虑初始场与侧边界条件不确定性的对流尺度集合预报试验
Convective-scale ensemble prediction experiments under dif-ferent large-scale forcing with consideration of uncertainties in initial and lateral boundary condition
摘要
Abstract
As the first effort to develop a self-adaptive convective scale ensemble prediction system,this study examines two different initial perturbation methods for the simulation of two different types of heavy rain case and their impacts on precipitati-on prediction under the same lateral boundary perturbations.A suite of ensemble experiments has been conducted:In the first two experiments,both initial perturbation (ICs,include ETKF and DOWN)and lateral boundary perturbation (LBCs)are con-sidered,while in others experiments only ICs or LBCs are considered.Results show that under strong large scale forcing and when both ICs and LBCs are considered,the ETKF method provides more net perturbation energy in the early hours while the DOWN method provides more energy in the later hours of the integration.However,when the large scale forcing is weak,the ETKF method results in more perturbation energy than the DOWN method during the entire forecast period,indicating the im-portance of consistency between initial and lateral perturbations.Note that initial perturbation is always dominant at the first several hours of integration and LBCs is dominant in the following hours.The effect of initial perturbations is more distinct un-der strong large scale forcing than under weak large scale forcing.Meanwhile,the synoptic-scale forcing has significant impacts on quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)and probability forecast skill.关键词
对流尺度/集合预报/初始扰动/侧边界扰动/概率预报Key words
Convective-scale/Ensemble forecast/Initial perturbation/Lateral boundary perturbation/Probability prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
庄潇然,闵锦忠,蔡沅辰,朱浩楠..不同大尺度强迫条件下考虑初始场与侧边界条件不确定性的对流尺度集合预报试验[J].气象学报,2016,74(2):244-258,15.基金项目
资助课题国家自然科学基金资助项目（41430427、40975068）。 （）
