电力系统自动化2016，Vol.40Issue(10)：46-52,96,8.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20150621001
基于Johnson分布体系的含风电场发电系统可靠性评估
Johnson System Based Reliability Evaluation of Generation System with Wind Farms
摘要
Abstract
A multiple-variable simulation method based on the Johnson system is proposed and applied in the annual reliability evaluation of a generation system with wind farms.By using the historical data of the wind speed and load duration curve,the relationship between wind speed and standard normal variable (SNV) and that between load and SNV are developed in the method,i.e.the characteristics of probability distribution of wind speed and load are simulated.Accordingly,correlated wind speeds are simulated by simulating correlated SNVs,thus avoiding possible low accuracy of simulation due to the assumption about the wind speed probability distribution model.The accuracy of the method in simulating the wind speed and load duration curve is verified,as is the adaptability in reliability evaluation of generation systems with wind farms.Finally,the influence of wind speed correlation on generation system reliability is analyzed.关键词
发电系统/风电场/可靠性评估/Johnson分布体系/相关性Key words
generation system/wind farm/reliability evaluation/Johnson system/correlation引用本文复制引用
张立波,程浩忠,田书欣,周勤勇,贺海磊..基于Johnson分布体系的含风电场发电系统可靠性评估[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(10):46-52,96,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(51337005) （51337005）
国家电网公司基础性前瞻性科技项目(XT71-14-002)。 （XT71-14-002）
