电网技术2016，Vol.40Issue(5)：1437-1441,5.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.05.021
基于多重分形去趋势波动分析的电力负荷风险预警阈值
Research on Electric Power Load Risk Warning Threshold Based on SMF-DFA
摘要
Abstract
To solve the problems that traditional research on electric risk warning are limited with subjectivity and its risk threshold setting lacks theoretical basis, this paper proposes a method to determine power load risk warning threshold based on surrogate data and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (SMF-DFA). Firstly, the method substitutes and rearranges original time series randomly to eliminate their nonlinear autocorrelation. Secondly, according to convergence situation of long-range correlation index, the data of little influence on the index can be found. Critical point determining extreme events of current series can be obtained. It provides a referable threshold for risk warning. Finally, a case analysis based on Lorenz equation and actual power grid data is carried out and the results show validity of the proposed method.关键词
电力负荷/风险预警/阈值/多重分形去趋势波动分析/替代数据法Key words
power load/risk warning/threshold/multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis/surrogate data分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李存斌,李庆良,王庆林,宋易阳..基于多重分形去趋势波动分析的电力负荷风险预警阈值[J].电网技术,2016,40(5):1437-1441,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71271084)；国家电网公司科技项目(XZGDKJ201502)。Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(71271084) （71271084）
