计算机应用与软件2016，Vol.33Issue(5)：53-56,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-386x.2016.05.014
基于传染病模型的微博信息传播预测研究
RESEARCH ON MICROBLOGGING INFORMATION DISSEMINATION PREDICTION BASED ON INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODEL
摘要
Abstract
With the explosive growth of microblogs,it has become the important platform of news pervasion and public opinions dissemination.Research on the dissemination of microblogging information is of great importance for many different fields such as marketing management and public opinions control,etc.According to the features of microblogging information dissemination and in combination with dynamics principle of infectious diseases,we present a prediction model of microblogging information dissemination which is based on the classical susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR)epidemic model.The model takes the influences of microblog users’reblogging behaviours on information dissemination mechanism into account,and builds an evolution equation with the characteristics of microblogs dissemination. Experimental results show that the proposed model has lower predictive error compared with SISe model,and it can fit and predict the reblogging number of microblogging information more correctly,so that predict and get the dissemination trend of microblogging information.关键词
微博信息传播/传染病模型/转发行为/预测模型/传播趋势Key words
Microblogging information dissemination/Epidemic model/Reblogging behaviour/Prediction model/Dissemination trend分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
游新年,刘群..基于传染病模型的微博信息传播预测研究[J].计算机应用与软件,2016,33(5):53-56,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（61075019）；重庆市自然科学基金项目（CSTC2014jcyjA40047）；重庆市教委研究项目（KJ1400403）。 （）
