林产化学与工业2016，Vol.36Issue(2)：134-138,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-2417.2016.02.020
基于学习曲线的生物质成型燃料补贴政策研究
Study on Subsidy Policy Based on Learning Curve for Biomass Molding Fuels in China
摘要
Abstract
Through the comprehensive investigation and analysis of the biomass molding fuels ( BMF) industry in China, with combination of the development track and the related targets of the government for this industry, the learning curve for BMF was developed and validated in this study. On the basis of this learning curve, the BMF costs in the future were forecasted, and the formulation of subsidy policy was investigated to achieve the commercialization and utilize the production of 50 million tons BMF in the year of 2020. The results showed that in order to realize the targets, the BMF cost should be lowered to 462 CNY (Chinese Yuan)/ton, at which scenario the learning coefficient is 0. 509 and the learning rate is 70. 2%. For promoting the technological progress, the government should subsidize BMF industry before 2020, the maximal annual subsidy is about 600 million CNY in 2016, and the total subsidy from 2012 to 2020 is about 41. 24 billion CNY.关键词
生物质成型燃料/学习曲线/补贴政策Key words
biomass molding fuels/learning curve/subsidy policies分类
化学化工引用本文复制引用
许洁,袁振宏,姜洋,李伟振,马隆龙..基于学习曲线的生物质成型燃料补贴政策研究[J].林产化学与工业,2016,36(2):134-138,5.基金项目
联合国开发计划署-中国生物质成型燃料示范项目(00068721-CPR/13/304) （00068721-CPR/13/304）
可再生能源与能源效率伙伴关系计划项目(108030134) （108030134）
广东省中国科学院全面战略合作项目(2012B09040025) （2012B09040025）
