水资源与水工程学报2016，Vol.27Issue(2)：11-17,7.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2016.02.03
未来气候情景下和田河流域日径流过程模拟
Simulation of daily runoff process in Hotan river basin under scenario of future climate
摘要
Abstract
The paper selected a distributed hydrological MIKE SHE model which has physical base to simulate the hydrological process of Hotan river basin in the typical arid region of northwest of China. It used TRMM ( Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ) rainfall data so as to relize the input of distributed rainfall . The ensemble mean method were used to simulate the change of surface runoff under the four cli-mate change scenarios of RCP2. 6, RCP4. 5, RCP6. 0 and RCP8. 5 in the future. Results indicate that the distributed hydrological model of MIKE SHE can be used to simulate the hydrological process in the Hotan river basin which has scare observation sites and harsh natural environments. The results of cali-bration and validation are in acceptable range. The simulation results show that the changes of precipitati-on, temperature and surface runoff are in good consistency under different climate change scenarios. The precipitation increases in spring, autumn and winter season, while decreases in summer. The temperature rise in four seasons and that increases the largest in summer season. The total surface runoff increases, while that in July and August decreases. The melting snow period further advances and the melting snow volume in Spring increases significantly.关键词
MIKESHE/日径流/干旱区/和田河Key words
MIKE SHE/daily runoff/arid region/Hotan river分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
罗敏,刘铁,黄粤,孟凡浩,刘蛟,田霖..未来气候情景下和田河流域日径流过程模拟[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(2):11-17,7.基金项目
千人计划-新疆项目(374231001) （374231001）
中科院STS项目(TSS-2015-014) （TSS-2015-014）
