沙漠与绿洲气象2016，Vol.10Issue(2)：43-49,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0799.2016.02.007
天山南麓雷暴日短期预报研究
Study on Thunderstorm Short-term Forecast in the Southern of Tianshan Mountains
摘要
Abstract
Based on the thunderstorm observation and sounding data from 12 meteorological stations in the Aksu and surrounding areas during 1980-2013, we defined the regional thunderstorm as the day there is more than three stations with thunderstorm weather.Finally the weather situation was mainly divided into 4 types: The Balkhash Lake low trough type, the jet type, the northwest airflow type and the temperature trough type. By constantly revise the critical value of the type indicator to achieve optimal results, and the type indicators are determined by the indicator of Balkhash Lake low trough type is trough≥f0(f0=80), the jet type is stream≥f1(f1=160)or Umax≥f2 (f2=20), the northwest airflow type is airflow≥f3 (f3=70)and the temperature trough type is t≥f4, (f4=1.5). By this method and the data during 2002-2012 from May to September, the result showed that the number of samples meeting the indicator is 876, empty elimination rate is 48%. The result showed that the number of samples meeting the indicator is 80, empty elimination rate is 48% by using the data of 2013 from May to September. The method of identification weather type has greatly reduced the sample number and effectively improved the prediction. Backing to generation of test with all samples were elected to 4 weather types from May to September during 2002-2012, the average accuracy is 72.0% (the average TS score was 30.1%);The forecast with all samples were elected to 4 weather types from May to September in 2013, the average accuracy is 63.2%(the average TS score was 28.2%).关键词
雷暴/环流分型/逐步回归方程/回代检验/试预报Key words
thunderstorms/circulation classification/stepwise regression equation/back to the generation of test/experiment forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
柳志慧,王式功,尚可政,孔德兵,赵文婧,王昀..天山南麓雷暴日短期预报研究[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(2):43-49,7.基金项目
国家公益性(气象)行业专项项目(GYHY201306047, GYHY201206004) 和兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项(lzujbky-2013-m03). （气象）
