农业展望Issue(4)：24-30,7.
基于时间序列分解的近10年北京市蔬菜价格波动规律分析
Vegetables Price Fluctuation of the Past Decade in Beijing by Time Series Decomposition
摘要
Abstract
Using seasonal adjustment and time-series decomposition methods, the authors analyzed the monthly average price of vegetables in Beijing since 2006, which was collected by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), to infer the fluctuation characteristics of vegetables prices of wholesale market, wet market and supermarket. Conclusions were as follows: the linkage among vegetables prices of wholesale market, wet market and supermarket was significant, which was a direct reflection of the high degree of market integration in Beijing;since 2013, irregular fluctuations in Beijing's vegetables prices of wholesale market, wet market and supermarket were becoming weaker due to fewer extreme weather;seasonal factor's influence on the prices of wholesale market and supermarket was gradually increased, while its impact on wet market vegetable price was almost unchanged;the overall price trend of wholesale market, wet market and supermarket was slightly different, vegetables prices of wholesale market and supermarket were first to increase and then decreased, while the wet market vegetable price was holding steady with a slightly upward trend after reaching the turning point;in cycle aspect, vegetable prices in three kinds of markets had basically the same cycle of price change.关键词
时间序列分解/蔬菜价格/波动/北京Key words
time series decomposition/vegetable price/fluctuation/Beijing引用本文复制引用
刘丽红,李瑾,赵安平..基于时间序列分解的近10年北京市蔬菜价格波动规律分析[J].农业展望,2016,(4):24-30,7.基金项目
北京市农林科学院创新能力建设专项“基于‘互联网+’的京津冀现代农业协同创新研究”；中国工程院咨询研究课题“‘互联网+现代农业’行动计划发展战略研究” （）
