计算机技术与发展2016，Vol.26Issue(6)：1-5,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-629X.2016.06.001
基于S型曲线的模糊故障树及其应用
Fuzzy Fault Tree and Its Application Based on S Curve
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the problem of the comprehensive evaluation of the traditional fuzzy fault tree model,the reliability of the expert e-valuation is seldom considered in the process of dealing with the expert opinion. Fuzzy number determination method based on the confi-dence degree of S type curve is proposed,introduction of the expert’ s authority coefficient and the consistency coefficient. The probability deviation method is used to get the adjustable parameters of the S type curve,and the fuzzy failure probability of the basic events for the fault tree can be calibrated based on the adjustable parameters and the confidence level. Experiments are carried out in the combat system, whose results show that the assessment of the same basic events is quite different when the assessment of the distribution of the basic e-vents is even,the final failure probability of each basic event is more obvious,and the probability of failure probability is more stable and verified that improved fuzzy fault tree is more consistent with the objective reality,and the accuracy of the fuzzy fault tree diagnosis is in-creased.关键词
模糊故障树/专家置信度/可调参数/S型曲线Key words
fuzzy fault tree/expert confidence degree/adjustable parameter/S type curve分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
徐慧,燕雪峰..基于S型曲线的模糊故障树及其应用[J].计算机技术与发展,2016,26(6):1-5,5.基金项目
国防科工局“十二五”重大基础科研项目(0420110005) （0420110005）
