电网技术2016，Vol.40Issue(6)：1697-1704,8.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.06.013
风速相关性下的电网阻塞概率预测
Probabilistic Forecast of Transmission Congestion With Wind Speed Correlation
摘要
Abstract
Due to intermittence and randomness of wind power, large-scale integration of wind farms in power system will exert influence on power flow distribution. Transmission congestion was caused in part of lines by strong wind speed correlation. Because characteristics of wind power distribution is nonlinear and of tail dependence, wind speed correlation model was obtained with generalized Copula function, and then its parameters were estimated. The correlation model was evaluated and compared with other Copula functions. Wind speed data with specific correlation, obtained from generalized Copula function, is applied to optimal power flow. Probability distribution of sectional power flow was obtained with optimal power flow with improved niche genetic algorithm and Ranked Set Sampling Monte Carlo simulation, and thus congestion probability of transmission section is predicted. At last, the proposed model is applied to IEEE-39 test system. Results show that transmission congestion is influenced by wind speed correlation for component failure. Meanwhile, the model and proposed method are valid.关键词
广义Copula/风速相关性/输电阻塞/概率潮流Key words
General Copula/wind speed correlation/transmission congestion/probability power flow分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
张里,刘俊勇,刘友波,吴杨,闫占新,李茂贞,BAZARGAN Masoud..风速相关性下的电网阻塞概率预测[J].电网技术,2016,40(6):1697-1704,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51261130472，50977059)。 Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51261130472,50977059) （51261130472，50977059）
