极地研究2016，Vol.28Issue(2)：257-266,10.DOI:10.13679/j.jdyj.2016.2.257
北极海冰消融情景下环北极国家利益争端的动态博弈建模技术
DYNAMIC GAME MODELING OF RISK AND CONFLICTS OF INTEREST BASED ON ARCTIC SEA ICE ABLATION CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
摘要
Abstract
Continued elevated temperatures are a major feature of global climate change and are associated with a marked increase in Arctic sea ice melting.The decrease in Arctic sea ice resulting from increased melting has resulted in access to abundant resources,has opened a convenient navigation channel through the Arctic region,and has im-pacted strategic and military operations.The United States,Russia,Canada,Norway and Denmark are all seeking benefits related to the reduction in Arctic sea ice.A dynamic model based on game theory was constructed to ex-plore acts of cooperation and conflict among the Arctic circumpolar countries in the harnessing of these benefits. This model included comprehensive consideration of factors including climate change,material benefits,national relations,national prestige,and international laws and regulations.This dynamic game model was used to simulate and predict the outcomes of different patterns of cooperation in the scenario of complete loss of Arctic sea ice.关键词
北极海冰融化/环北极五国/博弈论/动态争端模型Key words
Arctic sea ice ablation/Arctic circumpolar countries/game theory/dynamic dispute model引用本文复制引用
汪杨骏,张韧,钱龙霞,葛珊珊,洪梅..北极海冰消融情景下环北极国家利益争端的动态博弈建模技术[J].极地研究,2016,28(2):257-266,10.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划（2012CB417303）全球变化与海气相互作用专项资助 （）
