南华大学学报（社会科学版）2016，Vol.17Issue(3)：46-50,5.
基于数学建模的人口结构与经济发展研究
The Research on Population Structure and Economic Development
摘要
Abstract
In this paper, by analyzing China’s sixth census and related data, the prediction model about growth of total popula-tion, future aging population and labor population are established. In addition, we fit the development curve of birth and death rate and the curve equation with the annual growth rate of labor and aging population by SPSS, and we get the percentage development trend, which predicts the future total population, aging population and labor population. Through the above model, we predict the total popula-tion will reach to the peak (1420.1 million) in 2026, which is close to the data predicted in national research report about population strategy. According to the above results and combined with Douglas model, we discussed the influence of demographic change on eco-nomic development.关键词
人口预测模型/老龄化/劳动人口/经济发展Key words
population structure/aging/the workforce/economic growth分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
刘升学,廖桑..基于数学建模的人口结构与经济发展研究[J].南华大学学报（社会科学版）,2016,17(3):46-50,5.基金项目
湖南省社科基金重大项目“国家级承接产业转移示范区建设背景下湘南三市产业协同发展与区域合作研究”资助(编号:122DA13) （编号:122DA13）
