气象2016，Vol.42Issue(5)：521-531,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.05.001
国家气候中心新一代ENSO预测系统及其对2014／2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的预测
The New Generation of ENSO Prediction System in Beij ing Climate Centre and Its Predictions for the 2014/2016 Super El Niñno Event
摘要
Abstract
El Niñno-South Oscillation (ENSO),as a dominant mode on the inter-annual variability,has a big implication in short-term climate prediction in China.In the past three decades,significant changes oc-curred in ENSO phenomenon such as its own properties,types and climate impacts,which have brought a big challenge for climate prediction and disaster prevention and reduction in China.Since 2012,Beijing Cli-mate Center in China Meteorological Administration (BCC/CMA)has pushed forward the research and de-velopment for the new generation of ENSO monitoring,analysis and prediction system (SEMAP2 .0 )in order to markedly improve the operational capability of ENSO monitoring and prediction in BCC/CMA. The SEMAP2 .0 integrates several latest results in international ENSO studies and develops many new techniques for ENSO monitoring and prediction further.This new system is made up of five sub-systems including the real-time monitoring,dynamical diagnosis and attribution analysis,physics-based statistical prediction for the two type s of ENSO,interpretation and application of ensemble forecasts in climate mod-el,and analogue-dynamical correction prediction.The 20-yr independent validation shows a relatively high-level prediction skill that the temporal anomaly correlation score reaches 0 .8 in terms of ensemble-mean Niñno3 .4 sea surface temperature anomaly index with 6 months lead.The SEMAP2 .0 started running as an operational system in BCC/CMA at the end of 2015 and has issued a bunch of operational products on the website.During its development,this system has been applied to real-time operational applications.It has given a basically reasonable indication for the El Niñno fluctuation occurring in the 2014 summer-autumn seasons,accurately predicting the weak central-Pacific El Niñno type in the 2014/2015 winter and its contin-ual growth after the 2015 spring as well as the type transferring to the strong eastern-Pacific El Niñno type during the 2015 summer.Also,this system has exactly caught the peak intensity and time of the super El Niñno event as initiating in September 2015,one season lead,and further predicted that this super event will terminate at the late spring in 2016.关键词
ENSO/预测/监测/诊断/超强厄尔尼诺Key words
ENSO/prediction/monitoring/diagnosis and analysis/super El Niñno分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
任宏利,刘颖,左金清,陆波,田奔,金飞飞,万江华..国家气候中心新一代ENSO预测系统及其对2014／2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的预测[J].气象,2016,42(5):521-531,11.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201506013）和国家自然科学基金项目（41405080）共同资助 （）
