气象2016，Vol.42Issue(5)：557-566,10.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.05.005
基于物理量参数的江苏短时强降水预报模型的研究
Research of Flash-Heavy-Rain Forecast Model in Jiangsu Based on Physical Parameters
摘要
Abstract
Fifty-one physical parameters are calculated by using upper sounding data from the Xuzhou, Sheyang and Nanjing Stations from June to August in 2004-2013.Based on the significance test of the correlation coefficient between physical parameters and flash-heavy-rain events (flash heavy rain that oc-curred after 0-6 h of the observation time)and the analysis of numerical distribution of physical parame-ters in the flash-heavy-rain samples and the non-flash-heavy-rain samples,16 physical parameters of pre-diction are selected finally.Through analyzing the indication to the flash-heavy-rain events of different types of physical parameters,and according to the different threshold of physical parameters in each month,different criteria for the flash-heavy-rain events are determined respectively.Thus,the flash-heavy-rain forecast model for summer short-time heavy rains in Jiangsu is established by the membership function conversion method.The fitting test and forecasting test of the forecast model are verified,and the results are good.关键词
短时强降水/物理量参数/拟合率Key words
flash heavy rain/physical parameters/fitting rate分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
沈澄,孙燕,魏晓奕,尹东屏..基于物理量参数的江苏短时强降水预报模型的研究[J].气象,2016,42(5):557-566,10.基金项目
江苏省科委科技支撑计划社会发展项目（BE2011818）和中国气象局关键技术集成与应用项目（CMAGJ2014Z02）共同资助 （）
